Old Farmer's Almanac Winter 2020-21 Predictions For NJ

NEW JERSEY – If you assumed New Jersey is in for a terrible winter with below-freezing temperatures and apocalyptic amounts of snow – for no other reason except it’s 2020 – we wouldn’t blame you.

However, you might also be jumping to conclusions.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac — not to be confused with its rival forecast predictor, Farmers’ Almanac — just released its highly anticipated predictions for winter 2020-21.

Blame it on forecaster optimism or Mother Nature throwing our disaster-weary souls a bone, but most of us are actually in for a reprieve from harsh winter weather this year.

The centuries-old forecaster is predicting a light winter for most of the United States, with warmer-than-normal temperatures expected for a large part of the country.

In New Jersey, we can expect winter temperatures to be above normal, "which means some typically-chilly winter rainy periods." The Old Farmer’s Almanac also predicts our state will see below-normal snowfall.

Wait, you may be thinking, didn’t I just read this?

No. That was the Farmer’s Almanac 2021 winter forecast, which is predicting a snowy winter – one that we haven't seen in a while. Read more: Farmers’ Almanac Releases 2020-21 Forecast For NJ

Any confusion about the two sources is completely understandable. Both are compendiums of useful information about the weather, gardening and just grooving on nature in general.

And though the Old Farmer’s Almanac, established in 1792, is the oldest of the two, the Farmers’ Almanac is no first bloom of spring. It’s been around since 1818.

Not every state will experience ideal winter weather, forecasters say, though affected areas are limited. Uncommonly chilly temperatures are predicted in Western states and far northeastern New England.

On the precipitation side of things, expect “wet” to be a wintertime constant. Rain or snowfall that is average to below average will be the standard throughout most of the country, while snowfall will be greater than normal in the Northeast, Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, the High Plains and northern Alaska.

"For the United States, we predict that recent warming trends will dominate in the eastern and northern parts of the United States in the coming winter, with below-normal average temperatures limited to the western portion of the nation," the almanac says. "Most of Canada will have a cold and snowy winter. However, rising temperature trends mean that the winter will not bring extreme cold; instead, it will be closer to normal."

What’s shaping this year’s weather? Forecasters attribute this year’s prediction to rising temperature trends across the world.

Indeed, a recent Rutgers University and Department of Environmental Protection report shows climate change is moving at such a rapid pace that the oceans could rise nearly 4 feet by 2070, perhaps plunging hundreds of New Jersey communities into the water in the process

The DEP recently released a study projecting a dramatic sea-level rise in New Jersey. According to the report, the sea level in New Jersey could rise from 2000 levels to up to 1.1 feet by 2030, 2.1 feet by 2050, nearly 4 feet by 2070 and and 6.3 feet by 2100.

The DEP said the report underscores the urgency of the Murphy administration's work to make the state more resilient to the effects of climate change. The report also shows that New Jersey has already been disproportionately affected by climate change, since sea-level rise projections in New Jersey are more than two times the global average, the DEP says.

Other reports have made similar claims.

Related:

• Report Shows How At Least 19 NJ Towns 'Soon' Could Be Under Water
• These 9 NJ Communities Will 'Soon' Be Under Water, Report Says

"New Jersey is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and we must work together to be more resilient against a rising sea and future storms," said Gov. Phil Murphy.

The Old Farmer's Almanac, founded in 1792, is the oldest continuously published periodical in North America, according to its website. In fact, the almanac has released weather predictions since George Washington was president.

Each year, the authors of the Almanac go back to see just how accurate their predictions were for the previous year. When it comes to the 2019-20 winter season, they found that they were 80.5 percent accurate, which is just above their typical 80 percent.

Indeed, both the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmer’s Almanac claim about 80 percent accuracy in winter forecasts over the 200 years they’ve been peering into looking glasses that rely on different measurements that are somewhat mysterious.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast was originally based on a still-secret formula developed by founder Robert B. Thomas of Dublin, New Hampshire. Thomas believed magnetic solar storms influenced the Earth’s weather. His notes remain locked away at the almanac’s offices, but they provide the basis of a new forecast model informed by weather, solar and atmospheric science.