2017 Hurricane Season Forecast Released For Long Island

If the weather experts are correct, the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season may be slightly below average in regard to activity. The hurricane researchers on the Tropical Meteorology Protect team are predicting 11 named storms during the upcoming season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Colorado State University expects four of the 11 named storms will become hurricanes, with two likely to reach major hurricane status. Major hurricanes are category 3, 4 and 5 storms on the Saffir/Simpson scale. They have maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The 2016 Long Island hurricane season was a snooze, luckily, with only Hurricane Hermine threatening the region the first week of September. Hermine had minimal impacts on the island, but two fishermen died in rough surf off the North Shore.

The prognostication for a slightly below-average season is based on the “potential that weak to moderate El Niño could develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” CSU wrote in an announcement about its predictions. “El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.”

On top of the likely El Niño conditions, the forecasters noted that the tropical Atlantic is running a bit cooler than normal at present.

See also: 2017 Hurricane Names - Is Yours On The List?

Overall, the team predicts the 2017 season will be about 85 percent of the average season. That compares with 2016’s season that produced hurricane activity that was about 135 percent of the average.

While the prediction report calls for a milder season that normal, that doesn’t mean people shouldn’t take storms serious. Michael Bell, an associate professor in CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science, reminded that “it only takes one storm near you to make this an active season.”

In addition to the projected number of named storms, CSU also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall in its annual report. For the 2017 season, it predicts the following probabilities for major storm landfall:

• 42 percent probability for the entire U.S. coastline
• 24 percent probability for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula
• 24 percent for the Gulf Coast, from the Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas
• 34 percent for the Caribbean

The season peaks each year between mid-August and mid-October. The period is described as the “season within the season” by forecasters. This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” NOAA explained on its website.

The eight-week period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for about 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the Category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (Category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

The CSU team has been issuing annual hurricane prediction reports since 1984 under the direction of William Gray. Gray, a notable hurricane expert, continued to work on the reports until his death last year. CSU intends to issue updates to its 2017 forecast on June 1, July 3 and Aug. 2.

Residents readying for the upcoming season can get tips and advice on the federal government’s Ready.gov website. To read the full 2017 Atlantic hurricane season prediction report, visit CSU online.

Reporting by Patch Staff

Photo: NASA