Long Island Weather Forecast: Storm Track Shifts, What That Means For Us

There's been a "significant westward shift" of the approaching winter storm, and that has thrown a few wrinkles in Tuesday's forecast for Long Island, according to the National Weather Service. (For updates on the incoming storm and other local stories that affect you, subscribe to Patch's daily newsletter and breaking news alerts for your Long Island neighborhood.)

Here is what we know:

• A blizzard warning is in effect all day Tuesday for Nassau County and western Suffolk County. A total of 12-18 inches of snow is expected in those areas. Wind gusts could reach 55 mph.
• A winter storm warning is in effect all day Tuesday for eastern Suffolk. A total of 8-12 inches of snow is likely on the Twin Forks. Wind gusts could reach 60 mph.
• Snow could fall at a rate of 2-4 inches an hour Tuesday morning. Most of the snow is expected to fall over a 9-hour period.
• A coastal flood warning is in effect from 8 a.m. until noon Tuesday for southern Nassau and southwestern Suffolk counties. A coastal flood advisory is in effect from noon until 4 p.m. for northern Nassau. High tides of up to 3 feet above normal are expected to cause moderate flooding in the warning area and minor to locally moderate flooding in the advisory area. Road closures may be needed.
• Whiteout conditions are likely on roadways due to blowing and drifting snow. Do not travel unless it's an emergency, the NWS advises.
• Heavy snow and the strongest winds should begin to wind down Tuesday evening as low pressure pulls east of New England. Snow showers and gusty winds could linger through Wednesday.

RELATED: Red Cross Offers Blizzard Preparation Safety Tips

Here is what we don't know:

• Will the storm track continue to shift west? Snow is expected to mix with or change to sleet and rain late Tuesday morning into the afternoon in eastern Suffolk, but a further shift west would mean lower snowfall totals across the rest of the island as well.
• Where will the western extent of strong to damaging wind gusts be? At the moment, the strongest winds are expected on the East End. Power outages, however, are possible across the island.
• What will the magnitude of coastal flooding be? There's an increasing probability of moderate coastal impacts during high tide cycles Tuesday morning and afternoon for southern and eastern bay areas of the island.

Find maps showing the odds of various snowfall amounts below. You can read the latest NWS storm briefing here.

Main Photo: Flickr/CreativeCommons/Anthony Quintano