NYC Snow Update: 4 to 7 Inches Expected on First Day of Spring

Image via AccuWeather

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NEW YORK CITY, NY — So we may have jumped the gun when we somewhat dramatically mourned the "final snow" of Winter 2015-16 a couple weeks back.

In fact, according to government forecasters with the National Weather Service (NWS), winter's second-biggest snowfall may not actually come during winter at all — instead hitting the NYC area on Sunday, March 20, the first day of Spring.

"There is a potential for a coastal storm that could bring at least 6 inches of snow to the Tri-State area along with strong winds and minor coastal flooding" Sunday and Monday, the NWS warned in a "hazardous weather outlook" issued Friday morning for all five boroughs.

Forecasters are still relatively uncertain how many inches of snow will fall in NYC.

Three different snow accumulation maps posted to the NWS website show the minimum, most likely and maximum snowfall totals for Sunday through Monday. The minimum snowfall is zero inches. The most likely snowfall is 4 to 6 inches. The maximum snowfall is 7 inches.

According to AccuWeather, a combination of cold air blowing down from Canada and a storm system expected to hug the Atlantic coast as it heads northeast this weekend will likely make for some thick ground snow.

As of Thursday afternoon, AccuWeather was putting NYC's snow accumulation estimate for Sunday/Monday between 3 and 6 inches.

"There has only been one storm that turned out to sea this winter, so we are fairly confident this one is coming up near the coast," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "A true shot of arctic air, impressive for March, will push southward and set the stage this weekend. For areas that get into the arctic air, this will be primarily a snow event."

Slate's in-house weather reporter, the great Eric Holthaus, warned of potential "blizzard-like conditions" in NYC on Sunday/Monday.

Some additional context from Holthaus:

El Niño winters are known for this, unfortunately: They woo you with balmy February days, and then — wham! — another foot of snow on your doorstep. That’s been particularly true in places like New York City, which simultaneously had one of its warmest and one of its snowiest winters on record thanks to a mega blizzard in late January.

And here's the full NWS forecast for Brooklyn over the next week.

Friday Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a steady temperature around 57. Breezy, with a west wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Northwest wind around 16 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 44. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. North wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. Light north wind becoming northeast 8 to 13 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 34. Northeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow, mainly before 3am. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday: A chance of snow before 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 31.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 44.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 56.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 47.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 63.