UPDATE: Hurricane Joaquin Misses New York City in Expected Path

Image courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

An ”extremely dangerous” category 4 hurricane churning in the Atlantic Ocean, originally projected to hit the East Coast of the United States, now looks like it could head out to sea, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

The hurricane, named Joaquin, rapidly intensified Thursday and was still registering maximum wind speeds of 130 mph on Friday morning.

“The forecast models continue to indicate a track farther away from the United States east coast and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states appears to be decreasing,” the NHC said.

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A graphic of the hurricane’s projected path, which is being updated constantly by the NHC but is still uncertain, predicted on Friday morning that the storm would avoid the U.S. coast entirely — including the New York City area.

“Additional eastward adjustments could be required to the official forecast overnight,” the NHC said.

Eric Holthaus, Slate’s weather reporter, explained that the government’s former projection that Joaquin would hit the coast was “merely the NHC’s way of splitting the difference between two very different but roughly equally likely possibilities: A landfall in the Carolinas/Virginia or a track safely out to sea.”

As Joaquin pounded the Bahamas on Thursday, a state of emergency was declared in Virginia, North Carolina, Maryland and New Jersey.

New York didn’t follow suit, but Governor Andrew Cuomo did issue an emergency statement directing state agencies to “prepare for prolonged heavy rains and tropical storm conditions” in the coming days.

“We are activating the State’s Emergency Operations Center and positioning critical resources across the state as we learn more about this developing storm,” Cuomo said. “I urge New Yorkers to exercise caution and stay informed in the coming days.”

NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio gave a press conference on Thursday night detailing the emergency steps city officials were taking to ready NYC for Joaquin, in the off-chance it came through. (Video below.)

It’s important to remember that the hurricane’s exact path through the Atlantic remains uncertain.

But even if Joaquin never makes landfall on the East Coast, meteorologists agree that the hurricane and its winds — combined with various other storm systems moving through the NYC area this week — will cause significant urban and coastal flooding.

The National Weather Service (NWS) issued a coastal flood advisory for Brooklyn’s waterfront on Friday.

“Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend,” the NHC said. “In addition, very heavy rains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding over portions of the Atlantic coastal states.”

Keep your eye on the NWS website (or Patch!) for flash flood warnings as they come in and updates on Joaquin.