2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions Released

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a "near or above normal" hurricane outlook for the upcoming 2018 season. In releasing the annual Atlantic outlook Thursday, officials said they anticipate 10 to 16 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, five to nine storms could become hurricanes, including one to four major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.

"We're predicting 10 to 16 tropical storms. The average is 12," explained lead hurricane season forecaster Gerry Bell with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. "We're expecting a near average season which means a lot of storms forming in the Atlantic."

Bell said the forecast has a 70 percent probability of occurrence. "We would expect our range of hurricanes to be correct 70 percent of the time and they are," he explained.

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Forecasters predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

“With the advances made in hardware and computing over the course of the last year, the ability of NOAA scientists to both predict the path of storms and warn Americans who may find themselves in harm’s way is unprecedented,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts.”

Forecasters pointed to the possibility of a weak El Nino developing, along with near-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea as two of the factors driving the forecast.

“NOAA’s observational and modeling enhancements for the 2018 season put us on the path to deliver the world’s best regional and global weather models,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction “These upgrades are key to improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts, allowing NOAA to deliver the best science and service to the nation.”

Officials noted that atmospheric and oceanic conditions have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.

Watch below as NOAA's Gerry Bell discusses the 2018 hurricane outlook:

Image: Shutterstock, Geocolor images of Hurricane Irma

Written by Paul Scicchitano, Patch Staff