2017 Hurricane Season May Be Worse Than Predicted. Here's PA's Impact.

Forecasters have upped their predictions for an above-normal number of storms for the region. Back in May, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season. Now that number has risen to a 60 percent chance.

NOAA forecasters say there is a strong chance for 14 to 19 named storms to crop up this season. This is compared with the projection of 11 to 17 issued in May. Of those storms, two to five of them are expected to be major hurricanes, which is an increase from May’s projection of two to four.

That doesn't necessarily mean a hurricane will hit Pennsylvania. But the warm weather, forecasters say, will make for a stormier late summer and fall for the region.

Warmer-than-predicted water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean also prompted the adjusted forecast. Indeed, summer warmth will linger into fall across Pennsylvania, according to AccuWeather.

“That doesn’t mean it’s going to be exceptionally warm, but we do feel [temperatures are] going to run above normal,” AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said in an AccuWeather release.

However, rainfall will help to hold back extreme heat. It’s too soon to tell how these factors may affect the vibrancy of the region’s foliage, but windstorms could prevent fall leaves from hanging around for too long, Pastelok said. Late-season severe weather will threaten to kick in from Albany toward New York City and Pennsylvania.

Major hurricanes are those that have maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The estimate of five to nine hurricanes in total issued in May remains unchanged, forecasters say.

“The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010,” NOAA warned in issuing its revised forecast. That season gave birth to such named storms as Hurricane Alex, Tropical Storm Hermine and Hurricane Danielle. All told, there were 19 named storms, according to NOAA records.

The NOAA upgraded its predictions Wednesday as forecasters are also monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic Ocean that has been given a 40 percent chance of developing more over the next five days. As of Wednesday morning, that storm system was on a path that might take it in the direction of South or North Carolina. Should that storm gain enough steam to earn a name, it will be called Gert.

“We’re now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in announcing the updated predictions.

“The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 each year. Average seasons produce about 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes. Three of the hurricanes are generally deemed major.

“Today’s updated outlook underscores the need for everyone to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge,” said FEMA Administrator Brock Long. “As we enter the height of hurricane season, it’s important for everyone to know who issues evacuation orders in their community, heed the warnings, update their insurance and have a preparedness plan.”

Forecasters call the period between mid-August and mid-October the “season within the season.” This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” according to the tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Tom Davis photo