COVID-19 Cases Rising In PA, Even As More Are Vaccinated. Why?

PENNSYLVANIA — Coronavirus cases have been dropping in Pennsylvania for months now, but that all changed suddenly last week. Numerous metrics showed the state had either stalled or backtracked notably in its progress in suppressing the virus, a surprising development after weeks of decreases, an increasing vaccination rate and the warmer weather.

It's a pattern that's being seen in several parts of the mid-Atlantic, Northeastern and Midwestern regions.

Gov. Tom Wolf called the surge "concerning." Numerous reasons have been suggested for the rise, including the presence of a more-contagious variant of the virus, B.1.1.7, first detected in the United Kingdom. There are also concerns about "pandemic fatigue" and evidence that residents are doing normal, pre-pandemic activities with greater frequency.

The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia's Policy Lab publishes a COVID-19 forecasting model, which predicts that the rises will continue for the next few weeks. When asked why that was, a spokesperson for the Lab referred Patch to a recent explication of the increases in the Philadelphia area and around the nation, which says there is great uncertainty as to the "height and duration" of this resurgence.

"This uncertainty is likely the result of opposing forces in our communities that are either working to drive down case incidence (e.g., prior burden of infection, local vaccination rates, continued mask use, warmer weather) or potentially causing it to increase (e.g., relaxation of mask use, gathering in larger groups, increasing presence of variants)," the Lab notes.

Experts added that however long this rise lasts, they do not believe it will "dissipate abruptly" due to the relatively high level of cases still in the community.

"This should serve as a warning that communities that are still vulnerable should maintain vigilance as vaccinations continue," they added.

RELATED: COVID-19 Cases Increase Slightly Across Pennsylvania

The percent positivity rate on COVID-19 virus tests across the state is now at 6.5 percent, up from 5.7 percent a week ago. There was also an overall case increase over the past week — numbers rose from 12,802 new cases to 14,182 new cases.

Also this week, the state surpassed 1 million infections since the start of the pandemic.

In Montgomery County, Commissioner Dr. Val Arkoosh said there did not appear to be a single factor causing the increases. She also noted that the county was continuing to see many of the same behaviors by people that it has seen throughout the pandemic.

"Nothing's really changed in terms of what we've seen for months," she said Wednesday.

In the county, about 20 percent of recently infected individuals said they'd been going into an office for work, while another 16 percent said they were going into a school. Others had been to sporting events and private parties. This is what people have been doing for more than a year now, but more people are now getting infected.

"The risks haven't changed," she said. "And if anything, the risks have gone up a little bit, because there's these more-contagious variants out there in the county."

The B.1.1.7 virus variant first detected in the U.K. is one of several variants that have popped up around the world in recent months. That variant is believed to be about 1.5 times more contagious than the original coronavirus.

In states such as Connecticut, the new variant represents up to 30 to 40 percent of all cases, officials estimate, and it's believed that this variant will eventually become the dominant variant in the country.

Across Pennsylvania, the data for last week notes that the number of recently infected persons who told contact tracers they went to a business has increased.

The percentage of recently positive people who said they went to a bar rose from 15 to 16 percent, while restaurant-goers rose from 39 to 46 percent and gym-goers rose from 13 to 15 percent. The number of people who said they attended a mass gathering also rose slightly, from 9 to 9.6 percent. It should be noted, however, that these numbers represent a relatively small sample size; just 415 people responded to the state's survey.

This comes after the Wolf administration announced that many of the strictest mitigation measures, including those limiting bar and restaurant capacity and service, would be lifted in early April.

The increases have led places such as Philadelphia to maintain strict mitigation measures through April.

As mentioned, Pennsylvania is not the only state to see increases recently. Over the last two weeks, COVID-19 virus cases have spiked 30 percent in Chicago, with cases also increasing more modestly in places such as New Jersey and around the northeast.