NOAA Warns: Another Active Hurricane Season Ahead

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS — The 2021 hurricane season predictions are here, and it's not terrible. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's Climate Prediction Center has announced that we're likely going to have another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.

What does that mean? Forecasters are predicting a 60% chance that there are more storms than in an average year.

What is an average year? NOAA actually recently updated the data used to define "average." Based on this update, an average year will have 14 named storms, of which 7 become hurricanes. Three of those will be major hurricanes.

This year, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts 13-20 named storms, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to Five will be major hurricanes.

So, why do forecasters think this year will be particularly stormy? Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center explained,“predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon will likely be factors in this year’s overall activity.”

The good news is that 2021 is expected to be calmer than 2020, which broke records for the amount of storm activity.

Ultimately, the forecast is only a prediction. But check out NOAA's hurricane tracker if you're interested in watching storms develop in real time.

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