COVID Cases Down 5% As King County Shows Some Hopeful Signs

SEATTLE — After a recent plateau in the fourth wave of coronavirus, King County's case counts and hospital admissions are beginning to fall. Dr. Jeff Duchin, the county's health officer, hosted his weekly briefing Friday, cautioning of some "unstable weather" in the COVID-19 forecast, with a good chance for sun breaks on the horizon.

"After six weeks or so of increasing counts, the number of new cases this week has decreased slightly, by 5 percent compared to last week, with an average of 347 cases a day," he said. "The leveling off in case numbers and incidence rates are hopeful signs, although the immediate future direction remains uncertain."

Another improvement seen in the last week is among new hospital admissions, which Duchin said decreased 20 percent over the last week, with 117 residents hospitalized. Even with the progress, the rates remain much higher than they were in March.

"This is a welcome decrease that I hope is sustained," he said. "Because, currently, one person continues to be hospitalized in King County every 1 hour and 26 minutes."

The county remains in Phase 3 after Gov. Jay Inslee announced a two-week pause in all rollbacks on Tuesday. Without the reprieve, King County would have failed both of the state's metrics on case and hospitalization rates and moved backward to Phase 2.

"We are currently in a pause with respect to Phase 2 restrictions [which] makes sense based on our disease trajectory," Duchin said. "After we release the pause button, I want us to be able to push play and not rewind."

Right now, King County remains in a similar place, still above the 14-day threshold for cases and the 7-day target for hospitalizations. However, Duchin reiterated that the state's metrics are calculated with a lag between 7 and 10 days, meaning the latest signs of improvement are not yet reflected in the data.

As a result, there's still some room to knock down the rates over the next 10 days, particularly with continued precautions to limit disease spread until more people are fully protected.

"During this time, the quickest way to decrease cases and hospitalizations is through limiting indoor activities with unvaccinated people, continuing to wear face masks when indoors around unvaccinated people and when in crowds, and ensuring good ventilation in workplaces, businesses, homes, and wherever people gather indoors," Duchin said. "Opening doors and windows can make a big difference in reducing the risk.

King County hits 2 million doses, approaching 50% fully vaccinated

With King County's vaccination rates growing steadily, passing the 2 million dose milestone this week, the health officer said he was also optimistic the metrics could improve as more people who were vaccinated in the past now have their maximum protection.

"Vaccines take a few weeks to be fully protected after the series is completed," Duchin said. "Vaccine clearly is not a short-term strategy to turn around numbers, cases, or hospitalizations within a two-week period. However, what we will see is the effect of the vaccines that are kicking in over the past four to six weeks. That should help us to some degree."

So far, about two-thirds of King County residents 16 and older have at least one dose of vaccine. The oldest residents are by far the most immunized group, with more than 90 percent having at least one dose, and 82 percent fully vaccinated.

Now, county and city vaccination efforts have shifted to reach more younger adults and make getting a shot easier than ever, by allowing more walk-ins, hosting pop-up events and bringing doses into high-traffic areas. Such efforts are already underway in many places, including Seattle, Bellevue and Issaquah.

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Duchin listed several reasons for younger people to get vaccinated, even if they do not consider themselves at high risk.

"Although the risk of severe disease increases with age, even young adults can get seriously ill," he said. "Even if you're young, COVID-19 can land you in the hospital or the ICU. About four people aged 20 to 39 are hospitalized every day in King County currently. Even if you don't get hospitalized, you can develop long COVID. In fact, you can develop long COVID even if your initial infection was mild."

Beyond personal health concerns, Duchin said widespread vaccination helps ensure the safety of tens of thousands in King County who are immunocompromised or have weakened immune systems due to cancer treatments, organ transplants and other procedures.

"Many of these people can't get protected from the vaccine; they depend on the rest of us to decrease the spread of COVID-19 in the community," he said. "Even if you don't think you know someone like this, there's a good chance you do but don't realize it."

While disparities in vaccination rates are minimal for older adults, contrasts remain an issue among younger groups. Overall percentages are lower in the south and southeast parts of the county, which has also experienced the highest rates of infections recently and throughout the pandemic. To remove another barrier, King County recently began welcoming walk-ins at its mass vaccination sites in Kent and Auburn.

The era of community-wide restrictions may soon be over

Though King County's first-dose rates are relatively high, at 67.5 percent, Duchin said taking precautions would remain essential for a few more weeks, until more people are fully immunized, meaning two weeks after their second dose of Moderna or Pfizer, or single-dose of Johnson & Johnson. Right now, that rate sits just above 46 percent.

"The COVID-19 outbreak is no longer a five-alarm fire, but it continues to burn," he said. "At the moment, new cases of COVID-19 can still spark flare-ups that spread among unvaccinated people. We need to continue to fight this fire with multiple strategies — vaccines plus precautions."

Duchin said he believes the county is approaching a time when community-wide restrictions can be relaxed, provided the downward trajectory in cases and hospitalization continues.

"I think some of the guidance, the restrictions, will be less population-focused mandates and more personal risk decisions," he said. "I think we are reaching a point where that type of transition, from imposed limits and restrictions on activities to people understanding that when you gather with others who are unvaccinated, you're taking a risk."

Duchin closed his Friday briefing with some final thoughts on the near future and what may lie ahead under the new normal.

"Our outbreak continues to smolder, but with increasing vaccination coverage, we will see a decrease in the risk of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and fewer large outbreaks that disrupt our workplaces, our schools, our economy and other activities.

The end game, with respect to the way the pandemic will play out over the coming months and years, is not possible to predict with certainty. In my opinion, COVID-19 is not likely to disappear suddenly, but gradually. Likely with fits and starts over a period of years and flare-ups will still be possible in populations with low vaccination coverage or unanticipated changes in the virus.

COVID-19 outbreaks will likely continue to occur intermittently among unvaccinated people, but these should not lead to large outbreaks in a well-vaccinated general population. Vaccination is the most important thing we can do to reduce our risk now and in the future. The speed with which we can return to normal, and the extent to which we will need additional precautions depends on how many of us get vaccinated and how quickly.

To the extent that we can work together to increase vaccine uptake in the community, we will all benefit. To paraphrase Dr. Duncan Ryuken Williams — a Buddhist monk and chair of the University of [Southern] California's School of Religion — with respect to COVID-19, like so much else in life, we are interconnected, we are interlinked, and our destinies are very much intertwined."