King County Health Officer Emphasizes Caution As Phase 3 Nears

KING COUNTY, WA — King County's public health officer hosted his weekly coronavirus briefing Friday afternoon, rounding out a busy week in the evolving fight against COVID-19. Dr. Jeff Duchin shared the county's latest health metrics, revealed a new vaccination milestone, weighed in on pending reopening plans, and discussed the recent local discovery of a third variant of concern.

Overall, Duchin likened King County's outlook to a weather forecast: "Mostly sunny, with a chance of rain."

King County's case counts have stayed consistent for several weeks, most recently averaging between 130 to 140 illnesses diagnosed each day. Hospitalizations have fallen to levels similar to those before the third wave, with roughly five admitted to local hospitals each day. Deaths have also kept up a decline, now averaging about three per day.

Duchin said the trends are positive but stressed that the fight must continue, especially as Washington nears more significant reopenings. On Thursday, Gov. Jay Inslee announced all counties would move to the third reopening phase on March 22, doubling the capacity for most indoor activities and allowing smaller crowds to return to sporting events.

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"It's great to see increasing optimism about the recent COVID-19 trends, and I think we all share the governor's enthusiasm for a return toward normalcy as soon as possible," Duchin said. "At the same time, it's important to keep in mang that as we move forward...there is still significant uncertainty about how the pandemic will play out over the next few months. We can't let our enthusiasm blind us to the need to remain cautious in how we go about our lives and business."

Ultimately, Duchin said three factors will determine the level of success in the coming months: Personal behaviors, the pace of vaccine rollouts, and the level of spread resulting from more infectious coronavirus strains.

This week, testing at the University of Washington virology lab detected the P.1 variant, first identified in Brazil, in a King County test sample. Earlier tests have confirmed the United States' two other main "variants of concern" in King County, including the more prevalent B.1.1.7 strain, first identified in the United Kingdom.

"The B.1.1.7 and other variants are a wildcard that can hurt us if we're not careful or if we're unlucky," Duchin said. "The bottom line is that, although overall transmission is decreasing, the viruses that are out there are more likely to be the more contagious B.1.1.7 variant, and that means we all need to be careful. Although it looks like we have an advantage at the moment, if we want to keep it, we need to work for it and continue to respect the virus."

The good news, Duchin said, is that currently available vaccines have proven effective in preventing serious illness, even among the more worrisome strains.

On the vaccination front, King County continues to make inroads and recently reached an important milestone.

"There are now more King County residents protected against COVID-19 through vaccination than have been infected in total since the outbreak began," Duchin said. "Approximately 440,000 King County residents have received at least one dose of vaccine, compared with 290,000 King County residents who have been infected over the course of the pandemic."

Duchin estimated 76 percent of currently eligible King County residents had received at least one dose, amounting to roughly one in four of all adults.

Another major marker of success is among older age groups, who are at a significantly higher risk for complications — an achievement that may prove pivotal in preventing another deadly surge. According to county data, roughly 77 percent of those ages 75 and above have received at least one dose, up from 44 percent in mid-February, and 70 percent of residents between 65 and 74 years old.

Duchin reiterated King County will need a considerable boost in supply to keep up with demand as eligibility expands next week, and continuing toward the summer. President Joe Biden has asked all states to open eligibility to all by May 1, but realizing that goal will require large increases in deliveries.

"We anticipate in King County, as vaccine eligibility expands, the gap between supply and demand will increase," Duchin said. "There will be hundreds of thousands of new King County residents becoming eligible before corresponding increases in vaccine become available. It may take several weeks before those who are newly eligible for vaccine are able to access it. When that supply of doses does increase — and we know it will — we have the capacity to distribute vaccines on a much larger scale."

A central component of that effort will be a new mass vaccination site at the Lumen Field Event Center, which can scale up to provide 22,000 doses every day of the week, once enough supplies are secured.

Until that time comes, keeping up a strong defense will remain the strongest tool in keeping the virus down.

"The big unknown is the role of the variants...whether they will significantly accelerate transmission in our community, or whether we'll be able to vaccinate enough people, and take the precautions we need to take to continue to limit transmission," Duchin said. "It's hard to predict, so that's why I'm encouraging everybody, particularly now that we will be allowing and engaging in more activities where COVID transmission is potentially possible, to do everything you can."

If King County keeps up the good work, Duchin said he's optimistic for healthy and more normal days ahead in the not-so-distant future.

"If we're really careful, and we do things right, we will be able to be successful in moving forward on a decreasing trajectory," Duchin said. "As increasing numbers of people become vaccinated, we may be able to come into an equilibrium with the virus that we can live with."