Phase 2 Rollback Looms, If King County Metrics Don't Improve Soon

KING COUNTY, WA — King County is teetering on the brink of saying goodbye to Phase 3 if coronavirus metrics do not take a turn for the better in the next ten days.

Washington's next evaluation of all 39 counties is scheduled for May 3, and King County will revert to Phase 2 if it surpasses the state's thresholds for case counts and hospitalizations. As of Friday, the county was already above the two-week case rate and on the precipice of exceeding the weekly hospitalization threshold.

Moving back to Phase 2 would cut indoor capacity in half, from 50 percent to 25 percent, and is likely to impact the recent return of spectators at large sporting events.

Dr. Jeff Duchin, King County's health officer, discussed the county's outlook Friday during his weekly coronavirus briefing, warning of "increasing storm clouds on the horizon."

"King County entered Phase 3 with the rest of Washington state on March 22, at a time when cases and hospitalizations were already on the rise," Duchin said. "Since that time, our 7-day average case numbers have risen by 70 percent, and hospitalization rates have increased by 75 percent."

Duchin said the fuels feeding the fourth wave are multi-faceted, with a majority of cases now involving more infectious variant strains, social activities increasing, and two-thirds of King County adults still needing the full course of vaccination.

"We all knew it would take a significantly stronger effort to counter the effects of more contagious variants at the same time we entered Phase 3 and loosened restrictions. As of today, this surge has continued to grow despite the precautions we're currently taking as a community. Thankfully, vaccination has largely protected many of our older most vulnerable adults. However, we don't yet have enough younger adults vaccinated to counteract the increased ease with which the variants spread."

Here is a snapshot of King County's metrics over the last week:

• 344 new cases reported each day on average (+11%)
• Approximately 120 new hospitalizations (+25%)
• Incidence highest among people ages 18 to 24, followed by 35 to 49 and 5 to 17.
• New hospital admissions are highest for people ages 40 to 69, followed by 20 to 39.

Hospitalizations have risen steadily since early March and now sit at about half of the peak reached during the third surge in fall and winter. Death rates remain low, averaging between one and two per day, which officials credit to high vaccination rates among the oldest and most vulnerable adults. However, Duchin cautions people of all ages can suffer serious effects from the virus, even without needing a trip to the hospital.

"There is new research that was published this week in the journal Nature that found an increased risk for long-term medical problems in people with COVID-19, even though they were not hospitalized at the time for their illness," Duchin said. "This includes lung issues, from the respiratory effects of the virus, and symptoms that affect almost every organ system of the body, from neurological, to cardiovascular to gastrointestinal. There is also greater risk for mental health problems, including anxiety and sleep disorders."

Related: Coronavirus Spread Outpacing Immunity In Washington, DOH Cautions

While King County is making welcome progress in its vaccination efforts, reaching 57 percent of adults with a first dose and 36 percent now fully vaccinated, it will take several more weeks for immunity to reach the rest of the population. Duchin said the fastest way to curb the spread is by taking immediate actions in daily life.

"We need to, unfortunately, exercise our restraint and do the things that stop this virus in its tracks immediately," Duchin said. "Vaccination is going to take some time, and it also takes time to build immunity after you've been vaccinated. It takes approximately a month or more to be highly protected after either the J&J or the two-dose series vaccines. It's not something that can stop spread right away, like limiting your interactions with others can, by avoiding lots of close contacts with other people, by avoiding crowded indoor spaces, by gathering less, by making sure places are highly ventilated, and by wearing masks whenever around other unvaccinated people."

Here are King County's latest vaccine stats

• 57% of adults have at least one dose.
• 36% are fully vaccinated
• 90% of adults 65+ have one dose, and 78% are fully vaccinated.

The county estimates about 800,000 residents are now eligible who still need a first dose of vaccine. While the federal supply outlook is relatively steady, it has increased some, with about 115,000 first doses delivered to King County this week. Separate allocations are provided to local pharmacies through a federal program.

This week, the county also announced thousands of new appointments available in south King County and began scheduling in-home appointments for residents who cannot leave their homes. On Friday, Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan announced a boost in federal supply would allow the city to administer more than 50,000 doses next week at its four community sites, which are open to all residents and workers in King County.

Despite the good news on the vaccination front, avoiding more preventable illnesses and stopping a rollback in May will require quick, community-wide action.

Duchin concluded Friday's briefing with a plea for just a few more weeks of concentrated effort:

"Each week, the stakes are higher as our outbreak continues to gain momentum, requiring progressively more effort to bring it under control. Vaccines are the very best tools we have to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks from starting in the first place. By getting more people vaccinated, our entire community will be better protected. Every person vaccinated is one more case, hospitalization or death prevented. It also prevents transmission of COVID-19 and cases, hospitalizations and deaths in others. Right now, our break is worsening and the most effective way to turn it around quickly is to change our behavior and give more people the opportunity to remain healthy, stay out of the hospital and avoid potential long-term health consequences of COVID-19. With a more effective, community-wide effort...we can decrease the damage from this fourth wave and allow more of us to stay healthy and take advantage of our highly effective vaccine as they become increasingly available over the coming weeks."