4th Coronavirus Wave May Be Here, King County Health Officer Says

SEATTLE — King County coronavirus trends are continuing to move in the wrong direction, with new growth in case counts and hospitalizations among younger people, suggesting the likely beginning of an unwelcome fourth wave.

Dr. Jeff Duchin, the county's public health officer, hosted his weekly COVID-19 briefing Friday, detailing the latest areas of concerns and updating his viral "forecast" for weeks to come.

"Last week's forecast was mostly sunny with storm clouds on the horizon," Duchin said. "This week, it's raining, and it looks like there may be some unseasonably rough weather ahead."

After weeks of steady declines from the fall and winter's massive third wave in infections, Duchin said progress stopped abruptly in mid-February and pivoted to growth earlier in March. Over the past week, the county's 14-day rate of cases by population increased 18 percent as raw daily counts surged 43 percent.

Overall, case counts remain highest in south and southeast King County, including the cities of Covington, Enumclaw, Auburn, Kent and Federal Way.

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Duchin said infections are increasing across all age groups below 75, with the highest rate among those 18 to 24 years old. One bright spot is that King County's oldest adults are now widely vaccinated, and their share of new illnesses has fallen 83 percent since the beginning of February.

"The good news is that despite increasing COVID-19 transmission, our oldest, most vulnerable adults are now largely protected through vaccination, Duchin said. "This will help keep the number of hospitalizations much lower than would be expected in the absence of vaccines."

Despite the improvements for higher-risk adults, growing hospital admissions among younger people have health officials concerned.

"It's important to prevent COVID-19 in all ages, not just older age groups," Duchin said. "According to the National Institutes of Health, large numbers of people with COVID-19 continue to experience symptoms long past the time they've recovered from their initial illness. Often referred to as 'long COVID,' these symptoms can include fatigue, shortness of breath, brain fog, sleep disorders, fevers, gastrointestinal symptoms, anxiety, depression...and they can persist for months and range from mild to incapacitating."

Health officials remain worried about the increasing prevalence of more contagious and potentially more severe variants, which continue to gain ground locally, including the B.1.1.7 variant linked to the UK. Two more variants of concern — B.1.427 and B.1.429, first detected in California — are now in King County, with about two hundred cases already confirmed through sequencing, Duchin said.

The more easily spread strains could spell a real problem in the weeks ahead as Washington moves forward with reopening.

"It's important to note that these increases occurred before we transitioned to Phase 3, which will now further increase our activities and opportunities for the spread of COVID-19," Duchin said. "I think there's a good chance we're looking at the beginning of a fourth wave. What I can't predict is how big it will be and how much damage it will cause."

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In late January, when King County reached the second reopening phase, Duchin cautioned the state was "skating forward...on a lake not knowing how thick the ice is." Now, he says, we're about to find out.

"It looks like it's beginning to crack a bit beneath us, under the combined weight of more contagious variants and more activity," Duchin said. "Whether we fall through the ice, or skate safely around the dangers, depends on our behaviors and what we do as a community over the coming weeks."

Duchin said the next six weeks would be critical, as the broader population of younger adults waits their turn for immunizations and variants look for any way to spread through unvaccinated groups.

"We need a few more weeks of serious effort to finish this off successfully," Duchin said. "We can't let the light at the end of the tunnel blind us. Giving in and relaxing prematurely will lead to additional preventable illnesses and suffering. COVID-19 is now a vaccine-preventable disease, and we just need to keep our guard up until more of us can be vaccinated."

Related: 1 Million Fully Vaccinated In Washington; 3 Million Doses Given

Vaccination efforts continue to improve in King County, despite a relatively static federal supply. The county's most recent data shows about 600,000 residents have received at least one dose, amounting to 33 percent of people 16 and older. Roughly 18 percent of the county is fully vaccinated.

Among older adults, 87 percent of people 75 and older have received one dose, and 82 percent of those ages 65 to 74. The county has also seen gains in closing geographic and racial disparities. Duchin said every region in the county surpassed the 70 percent benchmark for people 65 and older, with the same true for most racial and ethnic groups.

However, as Washington's vaccine eligibility expands on March 31, Duchin anticipates a notable gap in supply. With the next tier, officials expect 430,000 King County residents will become newly eligible. When added to the people who already qualify but still need the first dose, the county estimates 1.2 million residents will need appointments. At the same time, next week's first dose deliveries are likely to land in the range of 50,000 doses.

"That would mean we could get one first dose for every eligible 10 residents who have not started vaccination," Duchin said. "We're asking [for] everyone's patience and understanding. We're working to get the doses out to the community just as quickly as we can get them from the federal supplies.

Duchin said shipments are still expected to increase significantly sometime in April, and the county is ready to expand distribution efforts quickly as soon as that happens.

Until then, Duchin said, everyone needs to stay true to proven prevention measures, including:

• Wearing well-made, snug-fitting face masks outside the household.
• Limiting activities with unvaccinated people outside the home.
• Avoiding crowds and crowded indoor spaces.
• Improving ventilation in workplaces and businesses.
• Avoiding unnecessary travel and trips, as much of the country sees similar increases in transmission and more variant cases.

"The virus is trying harder than ever to make a comeback, Duchin said. "In King County, of all people, the 12s should know better than anyone not to celebrate before we're in the end zone. We need to remember that now."