Recent Coronavirus Declines Plateau In King County

SEATTLE — King County's weekly coronavirus update included some promising signs Friday, but a plateau in progress has health officials uneasy. Dr. Jeff Duchin opened his Friday briefing by offering a few doses of good news, along with some reasons to stay cautious.

"With continued attention to COVID-19 prevention and increasing vaccination, there is a good chance we will be much closer to normal life this summer," Duchin said. "However, our case rates have stopped decreasing, and the more infectious, and possibly more severe, variants are increasing."

Duchin said overall case counts, hospitalizations and deaths remain significantly below peak levels reached in the third wave, down from a startling 778 cases diagnosed each day in early December to a daily average of 133 over the last week. The third wave was responsible for three-quarters of the county's COVID-19 cases and about half its hospitalizations and deaths, Duchin said.

Perhaps the most notable progress in recent weeks was seen among some of King County's most vulnerable residents — likely a result of immunizations.

"Since mid-February, COVID-19 case rates have fallen the fastest among adults 75 years of age and older, which I think likely represents early protection from vaccinations, and that is truly great to see," Duchin said. "We've also gone from dozens of outbreaks and hundreds of cases reported at long-term care facilities each week to single-digits in most recent weeks."

Overall, case counts remain higher than they were in the fall and the steep downward trend has leveled off considerably.

"This plateau began about two weeks after moving into Phase 2 of the Roadmap to Recovery, as we are increasing our activity and interactions in the community," Duchin said. "We will be watching closely for signs of any increase in cases or an increase in hospitalizations that typically lags changes in case rates by several weeks."

Right now, hospitalizations are comparable with those before the third wave, averaging between five and seven admissions each day, according to county data. Death rates have fallen across age groups, but three people are still dying every day on average. The effects of the virus continue to hit some groups harder than others.

"Despite the falling overall case numbers, disparities in the impact of COVID-19 across the county continue, with rates of cases, hospitalizations and deaths that are two to three times higher in south King County compared to communities in central and north Seattle, Shoreline, Bellevue, Issaquah, Mercer Island, the Eastside and eastern King County," Duchin said. "We continue to focus our vaccination strategy to reach those parts of the county with the highest rates."

Even with continued supply challenges, King County logged more progress in its vaccination efforts for priority groups, recording 100,000 doses administered in the last week. Duchin said 72 percent of those eligible had received the first dose, and 42 percent are now fully vaccinated. Roughly 71 percent of adults ages 75 and above have received at least one dose, up from 44 percent in mid-February.

Federal supply forecasts show a gradual increase in deliveries in the coming weeks, and new groups will become eligible beginning March 22. A new directive allowing teachers, child care workers and other educational staff to get vaccinated will be aided through the federal pharmacy program, which gets separate allocations from the government.

Vaccinating the wider population is still expected to take a few months. Until then, health officials continue to stress the importance of keeping up defensive measures, especially with the added uncertainty from more infectious variants.

Related: WA Detects More Variant Cases; DOH Updates Vaccine Outlook

"A few weeks ago, I suggested that our situation was like being in the eye of a hurricane," Duchin said. "Although the forecast may have improved, we still need to prepare for potentially stormy weather ahead."

To date, surveillance efforts have revealed nearly four dozen King County cases linked to the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in the UK, and five from the B.1351 variant, first identified in South Africa. Duchin said the known cases likely represent just a small fraction of those in the community, as the state is genetically sequencing fewer than 3 percent of all positive tests.

Related: Washington Ramps Up Efforts To Detect Coronavirus Variants

"If we get too comfortable and don't suppress the spread of COVID-19, if we travel and gather to the extent that we did during the summer and winter holiday seasons, we will increase the risk of experiencing another large surge in cases, hospitalizations and deaths this spring," Duchin said. "We're getting closer, but we're not out of danger yet. Letting up on important COVID-19 prevention measures too soon is like jumping from an airplane and throwing off your parachute before you reach the ground."