Surging Virus, Falling ICU Capacity May Delay IL Reopening

ILLINOIS — Coronavirus infections are once again on the rise across the state, despite more than half of Illinoisans 16 and older having received at least one dose of the vaccine. State health officials blame vaccine hesitancy among the state's rural residents and risky behavior among young people, but whatever the cause, it may mean delayed reopening or even new restrictions for some parts of the state.

The Illinois Department of Public Health on Monday reported 1,959 new cases of the coronavirus and 22 more deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the virus. As of Sunday night, 2,218 people were hospitalized with the illness across the state, including 491 in intensive care and 227 on ventilators. Those numbers are the highest they've been since early February.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker's final phase of reopening was supposed to start when half of all adults in the state were vaccinated, but the governor delayed the state's "bridge" phase late last month amid a "quantum leap" of new cases, in the words of Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, and full reopening will likely be delayed as well.

Pritzker appears unwilling to impose new restrictions, even though the state's published metrics seem to call for them.

According to the state's revised guidance, published in January, regions will return to Tier 1 mitigations if the following criteria are met:

• If a region's test positivity rate is greater than or equal to 8 percent for three consecutive days (measured with the 7-day rolling average)

• If a region experiences both a sustained increase in test positivity rate (measured with the 7-day rolling average for 7 of 10 days) and hospital capacity is threatened, which is measured by either:
  • A sustained increase in the number of COVID patients in the hospital (measured with the 7-day average for 7 of 10 days), or
  • Staffed ICU bed availability falls below 20 percent for three consecutive days (measured with the 7-day rolling average)

Several of the state's emergency management regions are approaching the positivity rate threshold, and many have seen falling ICU capacity and rising hospitalizations as well.

In Region 2 located in west-central Illinois, the positivity rate is 7.3 percent. Region 2 has already seen ICU bed availability fall below 20 percent for nearly a week straight, and hospitalizations there have increased for 10 days in a row.

In Kane and DuPage counties, which comprise Region 8, the positivity rate is 7.4 percent, while in Will and Kankakee counties, which comprise Region 7, it's 6.1 percent. Both regions have seen falling ICU capacity and increasing hospitalizations over the past week.

Under the state's published criteria, due to falling ICU capacity and rising hospitalizations, those regions already qualify for a return to Tier 1.

Under Tier 1 restrictions, restaurants and bars that serve food — or otherwise make food available — must limit capacity to 25 people or 25 percent of a space's overall capacity, whichever is smaller. Meetings and events are likewise limited by capacity, but most other businesses can operate under Phase 4 guidance.

Without such restrictions it may be too late to stop the next wave of the virus, according to researchers at the University of Illinois-Champaign. Pritzker has instead touted the state's pace of vaccinations, but those researchers told the Chicago Tribune it is currently insufficient to stop the next wave of infections alone.

The state says more than 8.1 million doses of the vaccine have been administered across the state as of Monday, an average of about 125,000 doses per day.

The state's latest deaths include:

• Cook County: 1 female 50s, 3 males 50s, 2 males 60s, 1 male 70s, 3 males 80s, 2 females 90s
• DuPage County: 1 female 50s, 1 female 80s
• Mason County: 1 male 60s
• Peoria County: 1 female 60s, 1 male 70s, 1 male 80s
• St. Clair County: 1 female 80s
• Will County: 1 male 60s, 1 female 80s
• Winnebago County: 1 male 50s